Abuja/Lagos
The Naira is expected to trade within a narrow range on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, as the second trading day of the month begins, with analysts projecting continued relative stability against the US Dollar and the British Pound.
Market data from the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) on Monday showed only mild fluctuations, a trend dealers say is likely to persist barring any unexpected liquidity shocks.
At the official NFEM window on Monday, March 2, the Naira opened at ₦1,359.58 per dollar. The rate edged slightly to ₦1,360.00 in early trades before moderating to around ₦1,359.99 by 6:00 a.m. WAT.
Currency analysts say Tuesday’s session is likely to see the dollar trade within the ₦1,355 to ₦1,365 band at the official window, reflecting what they describe as “orderly market adjustments” following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recent policy move.
Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent, a decision interpreted by investors as a sign of confidence in Nigeria’s disinflation trend while still maintaining an attractive yield environment.
Official, Parallel Markets Remain Closely Aligned
In the parallel market, the dollar traded between ₦1,365 and ₦1,375 on Monday in major commercial centres including Lagos, Abuja and Kano. Dealers expect Tuesday’s range to remain largely within those levels.
The gap between the official and informal markets currently stands at roughly one per cent — significantly narrower than the wide spreads seen in previous years. Traders say steady forex supply through formal channels has reduced speculative pressure and hoarding, even as importer and travel-related demand typically rises at the start of the week.
The CBN’s “willing-buyer-willing-seller” framework continues to underpin market confidence, helping to limit the sharp swings that once unsettled the forex market.
Reserves, Inflation and Oil Supporting Stability
Several macroeconomic indicators are expected to continue supporting the Naira through Tuesday’s session:
- Rising Foreign Reserves: Nigeria’s external reserves closed February at $49.51 billion, up from $46.11 billion in January, providing the CBN with additional buffers to manage liquidity pressures.
- Easing Inflation: Headline inflation slowed for the tenth consecutive month to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, strengthening investor sentiment.
- Stable Oil Output: Crude production remains steady at about 1.46 million barrels per day, while Bonny Light averaged $71.87 in February, supporting foreign exchange inflows.
- Record Trade Surplus: Nigeria recently recorded its largest-ever trade surplus, improving the country’s current account position.
With reserves hovering near a 13-year high of about $50.45 billion, analysts say the outlook for Tuesday suggests cautious stability rather than volatility.
Pound Also Expected to Trade Within Range
The British Pound recorded modest movements on Monday and is expected to follow a similar pattern on Tuesday.
At the official window, the Naira opened at ₦1,826.51 per Pound. Early volatility pushed the rate to ₦1,828.14 before easing to around ₦1,825.26 later in the morning.
Market watchers project the Pound will likely trade within the ₦1,820 to ₦1,835 range at the official window this week.
In the informal market, the Pound exchanged between ₦1,842 and ₦1,855 on Monday. Dealers expect only mild adjustments on Tuesday, with the spread between official and parallel segments holding around 1.2 per cent — a sign of stronger alignment across both markets.
Traders in Lagos and Abuja say demand for the Pound, particularly for travel and school-related payments, remains steady. However, improved forex availability in the official window has reduced speculative activity.
For businesses, importers, and households tracking exchange rates daily, Tuesday’s forecast points to measured calm rather than sharp swings.
Barring external shocks or sudden liquidity disruptions, analysts expect the Naira to remain broadly stable on March 3, supported by strong reserves, easing inflation, and steady oil earnings — with the CBN’s liquidity management remaining central to market confidence.