WASHINGTON, Jan, 2026 — China and India will remain the dominant drivers of global economic expansion in 2026, together contributing close to 44% of global real GDP growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed.
In its World Economic Outlook Update (January 2026), the IMF projected global growth of about 3.3% in 2026, unchanged from 2025, as easing inflation and resilient demand offset ongoing geopolitical and trade-policy risks.China is expected to account for roughly 26.6% of global growth next year, while India contributes about 17.0%, reflecting their economic scale and stronger growth rates relative to advanced economies.
The United States remains the largest contributor among advanced economies, with an estimated 9.9% share of global growth, though well below China and India.Several emerging economies also feature prominently in the IMF’s rankings, including Indonesia (3.8%), Turkey (~2.2%), Saudi Arabia (~1.7%), Vietnam (~1.6%), Nigeria (~1.5%), and Brazil (~1.5%). Germany, Europe’s largest economy, contributes less than 1%.
The IMF said emerging and developing economies are expected to grow at just over 4% in 2026, compared with around 1.8% for advanced economies, underscoring a continued shift in the sources of global economic momentum.While the outlook remains stable, the Fund warned that risks from geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and tighter financial conditions could still weigh on growth if not addressed.
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026